Trader’s Report 4-25

Good Day Traders,

Overview & Highlights:  Just posted a short Tech Tip video on “What to Do When You Miss the Entry”.  You can find this at:  https://youtu.be/UnUZmoJ8uFk

If you are Premium member don’t miss tomorrow’s training session on ATTS Entries for Options.  Even option novices will benefit from this training!

Upcoming Webinars:  At Active Trend Trading we offer four webinars per week to provide training plus trade and market updates.  See the schedule below for the next webinars.

After Market Monday’s—Free Fast Paced Webinar every Monday after the Market closes at 1:10 p.m. PDT.  Invitations are posted weekly at:  https://www.facebook.com/ActiveTrendTrading/

How to Make Money Trading Stock WebinarFree Webinar every Friday at 11:00 a.m. PDT.   This weekly live and recorded webinar helped traders find great stocks and ETF’s to trade with excellent timing and helped them stay out of the market during times of weakness.

 How to Make Money Trading Stocks on Friday, April 28th
Register now for the next live webinar at the link below:
 Register Here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5723282760726662914
Time 11:00 a.m. PDT
 

Next Training Webinar: April 26th
For Premium Members, our Wednesday evening training is developing some fantastic traders
Topic:  Using ATTS Entries for Optoins
 

** Friday’s “Final Hour”: April 28th  ** 
Time 12:00 p.m. PDT
For Premium Members, provides trades and set ups during the final hour of weekly trading.


Managing Current Trades:  Positions open in Strategies I, II & III
Strategy I:  4 Positions opened.

COMMS:  Opened at 40.58 on 4/18/17 – Closed ½ for Profit of $162.15
WB:  Opened at 50.35 on 4/11/17 – Closed ½ for Profit of $252.50
TQQQ: Opened at 85.50 on 4/18/17– Closed ½ for Profit of $373.50
FAS: Opened at 42.54 on 4/18/17 – Closed ½ for Profit of $219.60

Strategy II Basic Options:  Long IWM 28Apr 134.5 Straddle 2 contracts & sold 1 contract of 31Mar 134.5C for 1.45 to offset cost of straddle.  Closed for Loss of $72.00   

For members wanting to better understand this Strategy there is a very good training video at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/basic-option-strategy/

Strategy III Wealth & Income: Foundation positions are open in SPY, TSLA and NUGT.  Total capital for Strategy III = 30% or $26.6K. 

SPY:  Waiting for Set Up
TSLA:  Waiting for Set Up
NUGT:  Closed 4 contracts 28Apr 10C for a profit of $170

Results this week: 
SPY:  Profit = 0
TSLA: Profit = 0
NUGT: Profit = $170

Running Performance premium collected plus residual value of LEAPS
SPY:  +11.39%
TSLA: +83.94%
NUGT: +3.05%
Combined: +48.03%

If TSLA reaches 90%-100% return (combined premium collected + value of the Straddle) I will close the current position and reopen a new straddle to trade the rest of the year.  If price continue to rally with TSLA this may achieve this target when price reaches approximately the $330 level.  Stay tuned.

Tip for Experienced Option Traders: Occasionally after a weekly trade goes against me but the trend appears to be changing I will add one naked contract over and above my foundation position and close this out after it gains at least half of the premium I’ve collected.  Doing naked options is not for everyone and I keep my risk small by only doing one contract above my covered limit.  In other words, if I can sell 4 contract covered by my long leaps I’ll sell one additional.  This helps hedge the losses a bit but it this tactic is not without risk and must maintain a tighter stop than I would normally use with the regular position.

Note:  We do our best to get both text alerts and email alerts out in a timely manner, occasionally there will be trades that are missed because of delay in the Text or Email alert applications.  Additionally, please double check with your broker to assure they allow spread trades like we do with Strategy III.  Some do and some don’t.

Additionally, it is crucial when selling premium against the Long LEAPS position that the premium collected cover the weekly cost of holding the LEAPS plus an additional amount to over this amount as a gain.  This is one of the reason I sell premium of weekly options that are close to be “At the Money”. I base my selling on the expected move during the next week.  If one is not bringing enough weekly premium this trade will not work out as well and may wind up being a losing trade.

Several members have asked about this strategy and a more detailed explanation is available in this updated video at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/wealth-and-income-strategy/

I posted a video about how to choose the weekly options too short for this strategy. It can be viewed at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/videos/

Additionally, some of these trades may be selling weekly puts on up trending stocks.  If you are interested in parallel trading this strategy register at this link:  http://forms.aweber.com/form/99/1278533099.htm

Early Warning Alerts for Leveraged Index ETFs:   Last Trigger: 11/4—Second Chance Entry on 4/18/17 on TQQQ at 85.44.  This was a courtesy alert. Sold ½ position for 3.58% gain.

EWA Account Return for 2017:  5.18% Booked & Open Position

The Early Warning Alert Service alerted on all market lows in 2016.  See the link below for the new video for 2016 that highlights entry refinements that will provide improved entries even in environment like 2016.  In 2016, the entry triggers were challenging because of the number of straight off the bottom moves.  Mike and I have analyzed this and have tested adjustments in place going forward.

EWA 2016 Update Video:  http://activetrendtrading.com/early-warning-alerts-update-for-2016/


Potential Set Ups for this week:

TLSA broke out again today which brings its measured target of $330 in to range.  Current prices are just 17 point away from this target.  Analyst have put a Price Target of over $360 on the table.  TSLA reports earnings on April 26th AMC.

Other stocks of interest include LABU (with after a pullback to the 8 day EMA). WB add to on a pullback. FAS on a pullback to the 8 day EMA.

Gold:  Tends to rally in June or July with the rally lasting until late August or early September.  This coincides with the seasonal weakening in the dollar.  Last year NUGT rose of 150% during this rally.  While we do not know if a similar move will take place this year, I will look for buying opportunities in the June and July. Between now and July I would like to see Seasonality kick in. Then I will enter a full positon up to a double position.

FinancialsTends to rally through the end of April, but has lagged this year.  Price is looking for support at the 100-day moving average so a move up through the end of April may take place.  The biggest move in the Financials tend to take place in October.  Last year FAS moved over 50% from late October through the end of the year.

Biotech’s:  Tends to rally in June-July through the end of the year.  IBB is showing a reversal from a lower high.  Last year LABU provided two 80% moves between June and December. LABU is on my list today for potential buys.

Oil:  Tends to rally after February, but not this year.  Oil has not been following the seasonal pattern.  Last year UCO had multiple runs of over 40% between April and December.  Currently price is stuck in a range on UCO between the 16 and 24 levels.  No buy or sell signals presently in play.

Indexes:  Covered in General Market Observations


General Market Observation: What a difference a week makes!  Last Tuesday prices on the SPX were in “No Man’s” Land and today they are extended away from the moving averages and at resistance.  As I said last week, the NDX and RUT looked like the strongest of the 3 Tracking Indexes.  I opened a position in TQQQ the 3x Leveraged ETF for the NDX on the 18th and it has paid off well with Monday’s big bounce.  Viva la France!  If there is positive news regarding tax legislation more fuel may propel each of the Indexes higher!

SPX:  Broke out of its down trending channel and has moved back towards resistance at the 2385 level.  The resistance zone reaches to 2400 so if the upswing continues this zone provide may put the brakes on the move.  If price get to resistance, watch for a reversal candle that may proceed a trend change.  The oscillators on both the daily and weekly chart look to potentially support a move higher so if the ceiling shatters more upside maybe in follow.

NDX:  New high after Monday’s break away gap!  We were in a position for the NDX since 4/18 with partial profits booked.  Price is extended from the moving averages so a pullback is in order but this may take place after additional altitude is gained.

RUT:  Closed above last year’s high but ran into resistance just above the 1414 level.  If price close above resistance then that may be the catalyst for more upside.  At this point price are still working within a lateral channel.  Watch for indecisive or reversal candles to show up at this level as a clue that the surge is over.

SPX:   Downside Market Short the SPY, SPY Puts or SPXU.
Preferred Long ETF’s:  SPY, UPRO and SPXL

NDX:   Downside Market Short the QQQ, QQQ Puts or SQQQ.
Preferred Long ETF’s: QQQ and TQQQ

RUT:   Downside Market Short the IWM, IWM Puts or TZA.
Preferred Long ETF’s:  IWM and TNA

How to Make Money Trading Stock WebinarFree Webinar every Friday at 11:00 a.m. PDT.   This weekly live and recorded webinar helped traders find great stocks and ETF’s to trade with excellent timing and helped them stay out of the market during times of weakness.

How to Make Money Trading Stocks on Friday, April 28th
Register now for the next live webinar at the link below:
Register Here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/5723282760726662914
Time 11:00 a.m. PDT

To get notifications of the newly recorded and posted How to Make Money Trading Stocks every week subscribe at the Market Tech Talk Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketTechTalk

Index Returns 2017 YTD

ATTS Returns for 2017 YTD Closed Trades

Percent invested initial $116.6K account:  Strategies I & II invested at 25%; Strategy III invested at 26.6%.

Current Strategy Performance YTD (Closed Trades)
Strategy I:  Up $1433.85
Strategy II:  Up $1213.00
Strategy III:  Up $5405.99
Cumulative YTD:  6.90%

Active Trend Trading’s Yearly Objectives:

    • Yearly Return of 40%
    • 60% Winning Trades
    • Early Warning Alert Target Yearly Return = 15% or better

Updated first full week of each month.  The next update after first week in April.

Outs & Ins: EDU and TRU make their debut mid-week on the IBD 50.  Both have visited the IBD 50 in past years.  Neither are in a buy position.

LRCX, AMAT, ESNT and SBCF came to the top of the Fundamental Sort.  If we get setups on the IBD 50 stocks make sure to know when earnings are scheduled.  Being unaware of earnings can turn a great candidate into a dog very quickly.  Don’t want to be holding with no profit cushion.  Like the Indexes many of the IBD stocks joined the rally from last week and are now extended.  Wait for pullbacks for potential entries.  Keep an eye on the ZBRA breakout for pullback towards the breakout level of $93.24.

Share Your Success:  Many of you have sent me notes regarding the success you are having with the Active Trend Trading System.  Please send your stories to me at dww@activetrendtrading.com or leave a post on the website.   Thanks.

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