Trader’s Report 3-28

Good Day Traders,

Overview & Highlights:  Price action on the Indexes is getting sloppy with above average daily swings.  Prices bounced back to resistance today.  Is there enough price momentum to re-establish an uptrend?

Thanks for the great comments on the new format for the Monday and Friday free webinars.  Short and to the point, actionable intel.

Upcoming Webinars:  At Active Trend Trading we offer four webinars per week to provide training plus trade and market updates.  See the schedule below for the next webinars.

After Market Monday’s—Free Fast Paced Webinar every Monday after the Market closes at 1:15 p.m. PDT.  Find you invitation at:  https://www.facebook.com/ActiveTrendTrading/

How to Make Money Trading Stock WebinarFree Webinar every Friday at 11:00 a.m. PDT.   This weekly live and recorded webinar helped traders find great stocks and ETF’s to trade with excellent timing and helped them stay out of the market during times of weakness.

How to Make Money Trading Stocks on Friday, March 31st  
Register now for the next live webinar at the link below:
 Register Here:  https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4478489362405518337
Time 11:00 a.m. PDT

Next Training Webinar:  March 29th
For Premium Members, our Wednesday evening training is developing some fantastic traders
Topic:  ATTS Rules—By the Numbers

** Friday’s “Final Hour”: March 31st  ** 
Time 12:00 p.m. PDT
For Premium Members, provides trades and set ups during the final hour of weekly trading.


Managing Current Trades:  Positions open in Strategies II & III

Strategy II Basic Options:  Long IWM 28Apr 134.5 Straddle 2 contracts & sold 1 contract of 31Mar 134.5C for 1.45 to offset cost of straddle. 

 For members wanting to better understand this Strategy there is a very good training video at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/basic-option-strategy/

Strategy III Wealth & Income: Foundation positions are open in SPY, TSLA and NUGT.  Total capital for Strategy III = 30% or $26.6K. 
 SPY:  Sold 2 31Mar 233C at 1.44
 TSLA:  Gap up 3/28 took out stop – Closed at 10.50 for loss of $1300
 NUGT:  Waiting for setup at the upper or lower Keltner Channel on the weekly chart

 Results this week: 
SPY:  Profit = 0.00
TSLA: Loss = $1300
NUGT: Profit = 0.00

 Running Performance premium collected plus residual value of LEAPS
SPY:  +11.18%
TSLA: +39.08%
NUGT: +3.36%
Combined: 24.11%

Tip for Experienced Option Traders: Occasionally after a weekly trade goes against me but the trend appears to be changing I will add one naked contract over and above my foundation position and close this out after it gains at least half of the premium I’ve collected.  Doing naked options is not for everyone and I keep my risk small by only doing one contract above my covered limit.  In other words, if I can sell 4 contract covered by my long leaps I’ll sell one additional.  This helps hedge the losses a bit but it this tactic is not without risk and must maintain a tighter stop than I would normally use with the regular position.

Note:  We do our best to get both text alerts and email alerts out in a timely manner, occasionally there will be trades that are missed because of delay in the Text or Email alert applications.  Additionally, please double check with your broker to assure they allow spread trades like we do with Strategy III.  Some do and some don’t.

Additionally, it is crucial when selling premium against the Long LEAPS position that the premium collected cover the weekly cost of holding the LEAPS plus an additional amount to over this amount as a gain.  This is one of the reason I sell premium of weekly options that are close to be “At the Money”. I base my selling on the expected move during the next week.  If one is not bringing enough weekly premium this trade will not work out as well and may wind up being a losing trade.

Several members have asked about this strategy and a more detailed explanation is available in this updated video at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/wealth-and-income-strategy/

I posted a video about how to choose the weekly options too short for this strategy. It can be viewed at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/videos/

Additionally, some of these trades may be selling weekly puts on up trending stocks.  If you are interested in parallel trading this strategy register at this link:  http://forms.aweber.com/form/99/1278533099.htm

Early Warning Alerts for Leveraged Index ETFs:   Last Trigger: 11/4—Waiting new signal or secondary trigger.

EWA Account Return for 2017:  0.09%

The Early Warning Alert Service alerted on all market lows in 2016.  See the link below for the new video for 2016 that highlights entry refinements that will provide improved entries even in environment like 2016.  In 2016, the entry triggers were challenging because of the number of straight off the bottom moves.  Mike and I have analyzed this and have tested adjustments in place going forward.

EWA 2016 Update Video:  http://activetrendtrading.com/early-warning-alerts-update-for-2016/


Potential Set Ups for this week:  With the Indexes being mixed, price action is becoming a bit raggedy.  This means that both the Indexes, ETFs and growth stocks are showing price action with wide swings that can be challenging to trade.  As I often say, we can only control two things in a trade—where we entry and where we exit.  Price action in between is out of our control.  The moral if there is a solid entry trigger take the trade and manage from there.  If the wide price swings continue taking profits quickly is in order because the trend is sloppy.

TLSA has made it back to resistance.  A surge of cash from a Chinese company provided a positive gap up this morning.  Price is just short of a resistance zone that runs from the 280 to the 291 levels.  Up trending price action is currently extended from the moving averages on a daily chart.  Long trades wait for a pullback.

Other stocks of interest include SBGI, WB, PRAH, NTRI and BEAT.

GOLD Miners: NUGT and DUST are the two leveraged ETFs we follow.  These emulate non-leverage ETF GDX. Last week I added JNUG and JDST as alternative ETFs for the Gold Miners.  These two ETFs move more than NUGT and DUST so position size appropriately.   NUGT has caught a bid and is moving up.  GDX is consolidating with support at 22.51.  If this level fails prices will probably test the 21 level.  This action would favor a position in either DUST or JDST.

Financials:  The XLF sits below the 50 day EMA but bounced from support at the 100 day Moving Average.  Since was a new lower low price action is in a downtrend.  If price rejects resistance formed by the 20 or 50 day moving averages it would favor a trade in FAZ.  The Financials like the Indexes do not like uncertainty.  With the failure of repealing the healthcare act, it may cause concern on tax and other policy reform seen which would benefit business.

Biotech’s:  IBB closed rebounded above the 50 day EMA, but hit resistance at the 295 level.  Daily indicators look positive for continuing to move higher there is a short term trigger with a green candle closing above the red ball Hull Moving Average.  If price breaks out of the short-term downtrend LABU may be a trade opportunity.

Oil:  The non-leveraged ETF, USO is near the bottom of a horizontal trading range.  The weekly chart is looking like a bounce is coming, but the week is not over yet!  Take into consideration USO and the Oil Futures when planning a trade in either UCO or SCO.  I will set an alert on USO at the 9.75 level.

Indexes:  Covered in General Market Observations


General Market Observation: The Tracking Indexes show a resilient market with many mixed signals.  Markets with mixed signals can be challenging to navigate and lead to whipsaw.  Starting with the SPX.  Price action is in a short-term downtrend, but rebounded strongly yesterday from the bottom of the channel which coincided with the 50 day EMA.  Additionally, prices bounced from the 2323 level which was the downside target when price broke from a symmetric triangle on 3/21.  The daily chart of SPX is telling us that there may be more upside with both the TSI and Momentum turning up.  As highlighted yesterday in the “After Market Monday” Webinar, the daily and weekly chart indicators are out of synch.  For the short-term downtrend to be reversed price must move and close above the upper channel line.  If this happens then a new higher swing high is needed to set price action back into an uptrend.  Yesterday’s bounce and today’s follow through was a good start, but until the resistance is busted it is just price action with an established short-term downtrend.

NDX is in a sideways trend or consolidation pattern.  Because it continues to be the strongest of the three Tracking Indexes QQQ or TQQQ may provide a trade if prices breakout or retest intraday.

The Russell is working with in a short-term downtrend channel.  Note that its price action is weaker than the other two Indexes.  Price is stuck below the 20 and 50 day EMAs.  Yesterday prices bounced from the 100 day Moving Average.  On market weakness look to IWM or TZA for potential trades.  If the current rebound continues the RUT will become interesting between the 1375 and 1380 levels.  Depending on time required, these levels may coincide with the upper channel line.

SPX:   Downside Market Short the SPY, SPY Puts or SPXU.
Preferred Long ETF’s:  SPY, UPRO and SPXL

NDX:   Downside Market Short the QQQ, QQQ Puts or SQQQ.
Preferred Long ETF’s: QQQ and TQQQ

RUT:   Downside Market Short the IWM, IWM Puts or TZA.
Preferred Long ETF’s:  IWM and TNA

The How to Make Money Trading Stock ShowFree Webinar every Friday at 11:00 a.m. PDT.   Updated format—short, sweet and to the point!  Market, Stocks & ETFs.

How to Make Money Trading Stocks on Friday, March 31st  
Register now for the next live webinar at the link below:
 Register Here:  https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4478489362405518337
Time 11:00 a.m. PDT

 To get notifications of the newly recorded and posted How to Make Money Trading Stocks every week subscribe at the Market Tech Talk Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketTechTalk


Index Returns 2017 YTD

ATTS Returns for 2017 YTD Closed Trades


 Percent invested initial $116.6K account:  Strategies I & II invested at 1%; Strategy III invested at 26.6%.

Current Strategy Performance YTD (Closed Trades)
Strategy I:  Down -273.90
Strategy II:  Up $611.00
Strategy III:  Up $4794.99
Cumulative YTD:  4.40%

Active Trend Trading’s Yearly Objectives:

    • Yearly Return of 40%
    • 60% Winning Trades
  • Early Warning Alert Target Yearly Return = 15% or better

For a complete view of specific trades closed visit the website at:  http://activetrendtrading.com/current-positions/

Updated first full week of each month.  The next update after first week in April.

Outs & Ins: No stocks added to the IBD 50 mid-week.  The Fundamental Sort of the mid-week list resulted in following top stocks:  AEIS, NTES, ANET, CGNX and NTRI.

Other IBD 50 stocks of interesting include ESNT, NVDA and WB.

Share Your Success:  Many of you have sent me notes regarding the success you are having with the Active Trend Trading System.  Please send your stories to me at dww@activetrendtrading.com or leave a post on the website.   Thanks.

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